Why Arab Democracy Will Fail -- Ronald Bailey, Reason
Youth, history, income, and complexity.
The auguries of political science strongly predict that the Arab Spring rebellions will succumb to new autocrats in the near term. Sparked by a 2010 uprising in Tunisia, the Arab Spring revolutions toppled autocratic regimes not only in Tunisia but in Egypt, Yemen, and (with outside military assistance) Libya, while civil war broke out in Syria.
So why the gloom over the hopes for a wave of Arab democratization? Because, broadly speaking, data on the arcs of post–World War II revolutions suggests that their chances of successfully transitioning from autocracy to democracy are less than 50/50.
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My Comment: An excellent and sobering assessment on why it is difficult to build democratic institutions in the Arab world. This is my must read piece for today.
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